A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
